Death-Care Demand Forecast
How many people will die in a county each year, from now to 2040 — for every one of the 3,144 US counties. Delivered into Claude and other AI assistants over MCP, or called directly as an API.
Try it before you pay
Connect an MCP-capable assistant to product.kcalbinmcp.uk/mcp and query
death-care demand immediately. No account needed. County names stay masked until you
subscribe — you can confirm the data exists, and see the population and rate, before paying
for the detail.
Plans
Six ways to buy, because the buyers are genuinely different.
County Report — $249, one-time
For an independent funeral home or cemetery asking a one-time question: should I expand here? One county — current-year expected deaths, the trajectory to 2040, and where that county ranks nationally for growth. Not a subscription; you ask this once.
Professional — $2,250/year
- Every county, not just one
- Year-by-year projections 2025-2040
- National growth ranking against all 3,144 counties
- Multi-county and whole-state comparison
Supplier — $5,000/year
For casket, monument, urn and crematory-equipment makers and distributors. Professional access shaped for territory design and sales-force allocation across the 15,401 US funeral homes.
Institutional — $17,500/year
For investors, private equity and analysts. Everything in Professional plus bulk extract for your own modelling, and terms permitting extracts in investment-committee and LP materials with attribution.
Enterprise — $27,500/year
For national operators and consolidators. Bulk extract of every county across every year, internal redistribution across operating subsidiaries, higher rate limits.
Academic & Media — free
Free for academic research and editorial use, with attribution and no redistribution. If you are writing about how mortality is changing in a particular county, ask and we will send you the numbers.
How it works
Subscribe on a plan above and receive your API key by email. Add the server to your
assistant — in Claude Desktop: Settings → MCP Servers → Add Server → URL
https://product.kcalbinmcp.uk/mcp, then your API key. Query death-care demand
directly in your conversations, or call the API from your own agent with a Bearer token.
What this forecast is, and is not
What you are buying is the projection layer. The underlying Census population projections and age-specific mortality rates are free public data. The value is the county-level allocation, the year-by-year trajectory to 2040, and the national ranking — assembled, calibrated and validated.
The projection is backtested. County age structures from 2020 were projected to 2024 and compared against what actually happened: median absolute error 4.36%, with 87% of counties within 10% and a population-weighted mean error of 3.42%. Those are the measured figures.
That backtest covers a four-year horizon; this series runs sixteen years. Later years carry more drift than the backtest measures. Treat near years as solid and 2040 as directional. Large counties project more accurately than small ones — the population-weighted error is lower than the unweighted median, so this is more reliable for a metropolitan market than for a rural one.
Calibration is disclosed. The Census projection series implies about 2.89M US deaths in 2023 against a real figure near 3.09M, so the level is anchored to the known actual and the Census series supplies the trend. The factor applied is recorded on every row.
A demand projection is a planning aid, not a guarantee about any specific county or year. It projects deaths, not market share, revenue, or the number of families who will choose any particular provider.
Built for death-care operators (market sizing and expansion planning) and for investors and analysts (due diligence and market sizing on death-care-adjacent assets).
Delivery and refunds
Digital delivery over MCP or the API. There is nothing to ship and no shipping cost. Subscription plans carry a full refund within 14 days of the first charge; after that you may cancel at any time, and cancellation stops future billing but is not retroactive. The one-time County Report is excluded from the refund window — it is a digital report delivered in full at purchase.
Need something else?
Custom geographic coverage, procurement paperwork, or a question before you subscribe.