These pages are free. They give this year's expected deaths for the 25 largest US counties, drawn from a dataset of 3,144 counties.
Expected annual deaths are rising nationally as the post-war cohort ages, and individual counties diverge sharply from that trend because the driver is local age structure rather than population size. The national analysis is on the blog — we keep the growth rate off this page on purpose, because printed beside the current-year figures below it would give the paid forecast away by arithmetic.
Every page states where the numbers come from, how they are calculated, and three specific things the model cannot tell you. We would rather you check it than trust it.
The counties
Los Angeles County, California — about 88,196 expected deaths this year
Cook County, Illinois — about 47,682 expected deaths this year
Harris County, Texas — about 33,434 expected deaths this year
Maricopa County, Arizona — about 43,192 expected deaths this year
San Diego County, California — about 29,444 expected deaths this year
Orange County, California — about 30,570 expected deaths this year
Miami-Dade County, Florida — about 28,332 expected deaths this year
Dallas County, Texas — about 18,080 expected deaths this year
Kings County, New York — about 24,266 expected deaths this year
Riverside County, California — about 22,290 expected deaths this year
Clark County, Nevada — about 20,647 expected deaths this year
King County, Washington — about 19,109 expected deaths this year
Queens County, New York — about 24,521 expected deaths this year
Tarrant County, Texas — about 15,636 expected deaths this year
San Bernardino County, California — about 15,784 expected deaths this year
Bexar County, Texas — about 15,482 expected deaths this year
Broward County, Florida — about 21,265 expected deaths this year
Santa Clara County, California — about 17,644 expected deaths this year
Wayne County, Michigan — about 16,038 expected deaths this year
Middlesex County, Massachusetts — about 15,756 expected deaths this year
New York County, New York — about 18,063 expected deaths this year
Alameda County, California — about 15,259 expected deaths this year
Sacramento County, California — about 14,028 expected deaths this year
Palm Beach County, Florida — about 23,827 expected deaths this year
Hillsborough County, Florida — about 13,346 expected deaths this year
The rest
The paid product covers all 3,144 counties with the full annual path per county, which is what you need to compare markets rather than look them up one at a time.