Maricopa County has a population of about 4,673,096 (2024 estimate) and an expected 43,192 deaths this year. That figure is free and complete on this page.
Where it goes next — the year-by-year path to 2040 and this county's growth rank against all 3,144 counties — is what the paid forecast is for. See what the forecast includes.
Its mortality rate works out at 9.03 per 1,000 people, against a national figure of 9.32 per 1,000 across all 3,144 counties in this dataset. That is below the national rate, which usually means a younger resident population.
The national picture, for context
Expected annual deaths are rising across the country as the post-war cohort ages, and they rise at very different speeds in different places — the driver is local age structure, not population size. We publish the national analysis on the blog.
We deliberately do not print a national growth rate on this page. Beside Maricopa County's current-year figure it would let anyone approximate this county's 2040 number to within a fraction of a percent, and that number is what the paid forecast is for.
How this is calculated, stated plainly
Method: Cohort-share indirect standardisation. County share of each national age bracket fixed at 2024; national projected deaths per bracket use single-year age detail and year-specific death rates.
Population source: US Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (county age/sex, 2020-2024 vintage)
Mortality source: CDC NCHS National Vital Statistics Reports 74-06, Table 1 (2023 US life table)
What this number does not do
It is a projection, not a forecast of actual deaths. It is what the age structure of this county implies, given national death rates by age. A local event — an epidemic, a hospital closure, a sharp change in who lives here — is not in it.
It does not model migration between counties. Each county's share of every national age bracket is held fixed at 2024. If people move in or out in large numbers, the real figure will diverge, and the longer the horizon the more it will diverge.
It is not a market size. Expected deaths are not the same as funerals arranged, nor as revenue. What share of them any one provider sees is a local commercial question this model knows nothing about.
The full forecast for Maricopa County
County Report — $249, one time. Everything for Maricopa County: the year-by-year path from 2026 to 2040 (16 years, not four waypoints), this county's growth rank against all 3,144 counties and its percentile, the national comparison, and the method and limits in full.
Buy the Maricopa County report — $249
One county, one payment, no subscription. Delivered as a single document. Reports are prepared individually — allow up to one business day.
Not ready to buy? Ask us for Maricopa County's figures by email and we will reply to you directly. We will not add you to a list or pass your address to anyone.
The rest of the dataset
This page gives you Maricopa County's current-year figure, free, with the method and its limits so you can judge it. The paid forecast adds what you would actually plan from: the year-by-year path from 2026 to 2040 for this county, its growth rank against all 3,144 counties, a downloadable file, and annual updates as the Census and CDC inputs are revised.
To be exact about what this model does and does not hold: age structure is an input to it — each county's share of every national age bracket, fixed at 2024 — but the dataset does not carry a per-county age or sex breakdown as an output, and we do not sell one.
See the other free county pages · Read how we build and check these numbers