How to use your pack

You receive two files: a PDF to hand to a reviewer and a CSV with the same rows so every number is checkable. The PDF prints a SHA-256 content hash of the CSV, so anyone can confirm the spreadsheet they hold is the one the report was written from. The hash is printed in the PDF only; the CSV does not carry it.

What is in it

County displacement signals — one row per county in your area.
WARN layoff filings — each with the state register link.
Economic context — employment in the AI-exposed industries we track (not the county's total employment), plus state-level delinquency.
Method, sources, limits and the content hash.

The columns

risk_level — the band the county falls in.
disruption_score — a relative ranking against other counties, not a forecast with a hit rate.
predicted_delta_3mo / 6mo — modelled direction over those horizons.
high_seasonal_variation — when true, normal seasonal swings can move the band, so read the direction with extra care.
affected_workers, notice_date, layoff_date, source_url — straight from the WARN filing; the link is the state's own.
mortgage_90plus_state_level — state level, not county.

A caveat we print rather than hide

The source table also carries score_percentile, which we found to be identical to disruption_score in every row we checked. We leave it out of the PDF table so nobody reads it as a second, independent measure. It is still in the CSV.

The as-of date

Printed on page 1. A pack is a snapshot: it is correct as of that date and is not updated afterwards. Order again when you need a fresher one.

Coverage

We hold county-level signal data for 3,221 counties and county-equivalents — all but one of the 3,144 in the 50 states and DC, plus Puerto Rico's 78 municipios. An earlier version of this page said "about 50 counties per state"; that was wrong, and it came from a capped query rather than from our data. Connecticut is the known gap, because our data uses the nine planning regions rather than the old county names. Check your county free — the pack itself is being finished and is not on sale at the moment.

What it is not

It does not satisfy any agency's requirement and it is not legal or regulatory advice. Your agency's own guidance governs what must be filed. That sentence is printed on page 1 of every pack.

Refunds

If the pack is not useful, email carey@kcalbin.com within 14 days of the charge and we will refund it. If your county turns out not to be covered, we refund in full — that is why the coverage check is free and comes first.

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